AI Isn't the Threat. Your Operations Are

In Brief

Are you ready for Google AI Search? Google's biggest search overhaul in 25 years was announced at its annual I/O Conference last month. For local marketers, this means AI Mode is not an incremental reduction in pack visibility, it's a category-level reset of how many businesses surface at all.

There's been a flurry of HVAC deals in the last week. Watsco closed its Jackson Supply acquisition; Apollo put a reported $2B into Apex; ARS added Tipping Hat; and Blackthorn launched a platform in Dayton, OH.

The franchise-equity model is scaling inside individual systems, not just across them. Monogram-backed PDS Tri-State acquired Foris Solutions in February, creating one of the largest operators in Neighborly's Precision Door Service system. The deal reflects a broader home-services trend: building scale within a proven franchise banner before chasing a cross-brand roll-up.

My Perspective

AI Isn't the Threat. Your Operations Are.

Last month, Google "unveiled" at I/O 2026 that it will now call businesses directly on behalf of searchers to book appointments and price-shop. Sounds revolutionary. It isn't. It's eight-year-old news.

Google's newly rebranded version of their 2018 "Duplex" technology–now called "Ask for me" (you'll see it on Google Business Profiles as "Have AI check prices" or "Have AI Call")–has been calling HVAC and auto shops for months. The AI voice announces itself as an assistant calling for a real customer, asks about price and timing, and reports back. In one operator's test, Google called eight repair companies. Three answered. One gave both pricing and availability. The lead routed to that one.

Google says it will roll out across the U.S. in three categories this summer: beauty, pet care, and home services. The extent to which consumers adopt the agentic feature remains to be seen. For our purposes here, it really doesn't matter.

Google's business model isn't changing. Google remains, fundamentally, an advertising business. Their systems are built to deliver reliable information to users, paired with high-converting ads. Google will continue to favor the companies it believes will best meet its user's needs. And Google makes that determination based on your Google Business Profile and Local Services Ads accounts. Google uses these platforms together to measure your operation, by assessing your profile completeness and accuracy, geographies served, clicks and calls, review volume and recency, and your customer response times.

As Google layers more AI into search, all it's going to do is reward the companies that have mastered the fundamentals.

• Dial in your GBP. There's arguably nothing more important to a home services business than its Google Business Profile. It's Google's AI-first reference when deciding which businesses to surface–and now, which ones to call. Accurate categories, current hours, complete service descriptions, correct service areas, fresh photos, and a steady stream of positive reviews. If any of it's stale, your business is essentially invisible.
• Answer the phone. Slow pickup times already penalize you in Local Services Ads—a roughly 45-second threshold. Locations that consistently miss calls get deprioritized. That penalty is live today. Most platform operators haven't fixed it.
• Earn reviews constantly. Not a quarterly push. A daily operational habit. Review velocity is the signal Google trusts most, because it's the signal consumers trust most.
• Keep your sites clean. Pages that load fast, convert well, and meet modern specs get rewarded. Everything else gets buried. This has been true for a decade. It will be more true tomorrow.

The agencies will spend the next six months selling AIEO (AI Engine Optimization), AEO (Answer Engine Optimization), or whatever acronym they coin next. Ignore them.

The operators who win will be the ones already doing the boring work—picking up phones and answering chats promptly, earning reviews daily, keeping their sites clean, and running tight Google Business Profiles. Google's AI isn't a threat if your fundamentals are strong. But if they're weak, it's going to magnify every flaw.

This week: Audit your GBPs and pull data on call pickup times across your markets. Isolate the problem markets. Cross-reference the data with your lowest LSA conversion locations. That overlap is your exposure. Fix it before agentic booking goes wide and gains traction.

Daniel Egan

Daniel Egan is the founder of Jay Street Consulting. With more than a decade of experience in the residential services sector. As part of a fast-growing, institutionally-run platform, he helped lead the business into a nine-figure exit. He has built teams, managed agencies, and learned firsthand what drives enterprise value–and what quietly erodes it.

The Operator's Edge

Google Is Changing How Your Customers Find You

Google made a splash at I/O this year about its search box redesign, but the real news is Google Search's expansion of agentic booking to local services.

Google is expanding agentic booking in Search to local experiences and services, allowing users to compare pricing and availability and complete bookings through providers. In select categories such as home repair, users will also be able to ask Google to call businesses on their behalf. Agentic booking will start rolling out nationwide this summer.

AI Overviews are already structurally embedded in local search; they're not just a test feature. Google's already implemented some of these features. The "Ask for me" feature has been calling appliance and HVAC shops for months. The AI announces itself as an assistant calling for a real customer, asks a few quick questions about price and timing, and reports back. Google picks which businesses to call based on local rankings, so whoever picks up is talking to a pre-qualified lead.

The Deal Sheet

HVAC Had a Hot Month

Apollo Global Management has reportedly invested about $2B in Apex Service Partners for a 20% stake, valuing the HVAC, plumbing and electrical platform at an estimated $10B.

Apex, which is backed by equity investment firm Alpine, was formed in 2019, and now operates 75 local brands across 46 states with more than $3B in annual revenue. Apex has expanded at a rapid rate over the last six years, uniting a historically fragmented contractor base into one of the largest home services platforms. This gives Apex significant potential leverage in procurement, data analytics, and supplier negotiations across its dozens of businesses.

Flint Group announced its acquisition of South Florida-based Air Around the Clock on May 27, adding a more than three-decade-old HVAC/R & plumbing provider to Flint Group's portfolio of home services businesses. Backed by General Atlantic, Flint Group continues its strategy of rolling-up HVAC, plumbing, and electrical.

ARS/Rescue Rooter, one of the largest HVAC and plumbing platforms in the US, is expanding its reach with the recent acquisition of Tipping Hat Plumbing, Heating, & Electric. The deal expands American Residential Services territory to the Denver metro area, and also to Aurora, Boulder, and Golden, Colorado.

Blackthorn Capital simultaneously acquired Kirkwood Heating & Cooling and Howerton Plumbing, describing the deal as a "platform-building initiative" in essential home and building services. The deal closed at the beginning of February.

Garage Door's Biggest Franchise Roll-Up Yet

On February 3, 2026, PDS Tri-State announced its acquisition of Foris Solutions, a Michigan-based Precision Door franchisee founded in 2010. Foris serves Southeast and Mid-Michigan, West Michigan, Indiana, Delaware and Maryland, along with Austin, TX and Akron, OH. Founder Steve Freitas retained a minority stake and joined the PDS Tri-State board. Tree Line Capital Partners and PennantPark provided debt financing.

The deal builds on Monogram's May 2024 majority acquisition of PDS Tri-State and PDS Tri-State's November 2024 add-on of PDS Cincinnati. Monogram manages approximately $1.75 billion in regulatory assets under management.

What it means: Sponsors don't have to stitch together unrelated local brands to build scale. They can consolidate strong franchisees inside a single consumer banner, then use shared procurement, fleet, recruiting, call-center discipline, and marketing systems to improve margin. Watch Neighborly brands like Mr. Rooter and Aire Serv for similar patterns.